Winter Weather Predictions

That All-Important Winter Forecast!

Those who operate Minnesota cabins, resorts and lodges, or Minnesota ski resorts, provide dogsledding tours, and so much more, all depend on a "typical" Minnesota winter to be able to realize a profit.

Merchants stock up on winter sports equipment, snow blowers, snow shovels and other winter merchandise. If we don't get snow, they lose their investment.

Many skiers and snowboarders depend on The Old Farmer's Almanac 2010 winter weather predictions. Of course old farmers (and those who are not so old) also often consult this well-known periodical that is a combination of folk lore and scientific formula. The Almanac is the oldest published periodical in the U.S. They claim an accuracy rating near 80%.

Folk tales and observations of animals are often used to predict winter weather. In northern Minnesota some people predict how harsh the winter will be by how high the beavers build their lodges.

Many people believe that winter weather predictions may be made by observing the width of the color bands on "wooly worms" or "wooly caterpillars." The story is that Native Americans showed pioneers how to read the bands to predict winter weather.

The way to "read a caterpillar" is: the smaller the brownish-red bands are the harsher the winter will be. The black stripes indicate snowy and cold weather while the brownish-red bands indicate periods of milder weather. A black band followed by a wide brownish red band and another black band indicates that winter will start off cold but will be mostly mild before ending cold.

But what about the forecasting accuracy of woolly worms? It is claimed that over the last 30 years, 85% of the time they have been either all or mostly right.

The woolly worm takes center stage on predictions for what kind of winter we will have however other creatures are also given the power of weather prediction. Here are some common sayings:

• "When the gnats swarm, rain and warmer weather are believed to be coming".
• Zuni Indian Sayings: "When the white butterfly comes, comes also the summer." "When the white butterfly flies from the southwest, expect rain."
• In western Pennsylvania, when the chrysalides are found suspended from the underside of rails and heavy branches, as if to seek a covering from rain, then extremely wet weather is predicted; if they are found on slender branches, then a spell of fair weather is predicted.
• Any butterfly flying in one's face is a sign of immediate cold weather to some; others specify that a yellow butterfly flying in one's face indicates sufficient frost within ten days to turn the leaves the color of the butterfly.
• "Seeing caterpillars late in the fall predicts a mild winter."
• "When bees to distance wing their flight,
  Days are warm and skies are bright.
  But when the flight ends near their home,
  Stormy weather is sure to come."
  
• "Wasps building nests in exposed places indicate a dry season."
• American saying: "When hornets build nests near the ground a harsh winter is expected."
• "Stepping on an ant brings rain."
• "When spider web in air do fly, the spell will soon be very dry."
• "When tarantulas crawl by day, rain will surly come."

One thing is certain about Minnesota winter weather predictions: if you don't like the weather today be patient; it will be different tomorrow.

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